One Step Further

 

Russian invasion of Ukraine. Another of these deliberate irresponsible acts which falls outside well-established patterns.

 

It is a further step into the unknown waters of post-mature or late modernity. An act defying the norms of behaviour and humanity which defined mature modernity since the last world war.

 

The invasion is one of the worst events till now in a series of developments and decisions bringing us into the last chaotic part of our modernity. Other hallmarks were the first presidency of Donald Trump with several decisions breaking the norms. Others are the attempted coup d’état in the United States one year ago and not least the present subjugation of the GOP by Trump. One of the next will be the return of Trump to power, this time with a party too intimidated to control him.

 

All of these developments create precedence. Restraints once broken down are difficult to re-establish in a lasting way. Throughout a modernity the aggressions rooted in never solved internal, social and int’l tensions again and again break out in violence. With time this typically gets more serious and frequent because of the continuous weakening of old norms seen not only in Woodstock, but also on the political scene and on the battlefield.

 

At least two civilisations have seriously tried to control this aspect of their modernity on a large scale, replacing it with written and unwritten humanistic norms and rules. I am talking about the second Chinese modernity in the Song Dynasty which had open political discussions and implemented social reforms. And avoided conflicts with neighbouring countries by a combination of a strong and technological military deterrent (perhaps an early version of a terror balance) and not least through regular payments of large sums of money to the main competing powers. The politicians were too wise to see this as humiliating and instead saw it as their goal to have the people live in peace.

 

The other example of a civilization trying to implement humane ideals in its modernity is our own, the Western civilization (including most of the present world). In some ways we have been far less successful than the Song politicians; we have had many periods with utterly barbaric persecutions, genocides and wars. But through the 20^th century we have made world history’s most impressive attempt to create welfare, democracy (not necessarily only in the Western sense)  and peaceful coexistence between nations, at least in the rich northern hemisphere. Keeping peace has of course been aided by the terror balance. The policies have been rather successful since 1945.

 

But now through the series of developments described above, these attempts at creating freedom, prosperity and peace on earth seem to be ending. The will to or rather craving for power replaces political ideals. Donald Trump, the republicans and several countries are killing democracy. And now the Russian leadership is undermining the ideal of peaceful coexistence between civilized nations.

 

Clearly, conflicts in and between countries are not atypical for modernities. But as said before there is always a degree of freedom to choose how severe this will be. That somebody deliberately chooses war on this scale in Europe is a major and unnecessary paradigm shift.

 

Here I have not used the hypothesis of Russia belonging to another civilization. This is because the country since Czar Peter The Great has become so heavily westernised that it for major parts of its politics is best understood as a player in our civilization. IF we use the idea of an East European civilization, see my recent posts, there can be little doubt that the Russian action is counterproductive. It will only push East European countries politically and culturally westwards.

 

Taking the broader perspective into consideration Europe should be prepared for a very different future. This not solely because of the precedence now set by Russia. There awaits us a future where Trumpism and the US Republicans further erode rule-based behaviour and transform the United States into a post-constitutional authoritarian country. It’s support can then no longer be taken for granted. Instead like Russia the United States will treat us with contempt and disrespect.

 

The Western civilization has been very ambitious in it’s attempts to create paradise on Earth. But compared to the song dynasty our attempts did not last as long. More and more, power will replace paradise as the goal.

 

The US Army

 One year has now passed since the infamous attack on the US Congress. Numerous analyses, comments and warnings have since then been put forward by talented experts. I will only add a few remarks concerning the US army.

I have always been dismissive of drawing the parallels between Rome and the United States too far. Not least because it seemed highly unlikely that we should see American politicians fighting each other with private armies. But the developments over the latest couple of years, especially the attempted coup d’état on 6th January 2021 make it possible that something looking a bit like the Roman pattern could arise. The likelihood of this depends strongly on the decisions of the top ranks of the American army.

The radical anti-abortion laws in several American States and the role of the US Supreme court are parts of the conservative backlash I talked about in a recent post. The partiality of the Supreme Court is an example of institutions becoming politicised. I have earlier predicted that like in the Roman Republic more and more institutions will be taken over by one or the other side in the American political scene, and that they will Compete over and fight for the control of these institutions. This becomes even more severe as the hated but very important deep state is eroded, and there is nothing left which can ensure a degree of continuity. No country, even less a big one can be run without continuity. If neither the politicians, nor a deep state have continuity, society and its groups of people still do have continuous beliefs, traditions and attitudes which cannot be changed by a sudden decision or action from above. It is the error of many revolutions and radical decisions that they forget this. Attempted radical changes introduced by shifting politicians having extreme and opposing views will thus antagonize parts of the population. Examples are prohibition of abortion or the full introduction of a Scandinavian type welfare state. Such measures can lead to violent conflicts. Things like these happen when continuity from above is lost in a strongly polarised nation. A politicization of institutions is obviously a strong contributor to a such discontinuity.

No doubt one of the most important institutions in the United States is the American army. The sequence of events leading up to the attempted coup d’état and the responsible reactions from the army leaders can make one fear that Trumpists or the like in the near future when back in the role of president will attempt to take over the army by replacing its leaders with loyal people. Resistance to such political assaults from the armed forces could limit the damage caused by such politicians. But it could also lead to different ranches of the army swearing allegiance to different political parties or rather to different political leaders.

With its importance the US army is perhaps the last hope for the unity of the country. Therefore its use for partisan politics would be disastrous. Armed forces could be used to seize or maintain power, and different parts of the army could be used against each other. In this way the conditions in the United States would more than I had expected approach the Roman Republic in its last century.

The three most important developments in the world in the last five decades are the breakdown of the Soviet Union, the rise of China AND the polarization of the United States. The latter development has over the latest few years taken extreme dimensions with the rise and entry into the GOP of an extreme mob with a world view which is in denial of parts of reality and science. A country split by such antagonisms needs strong uniting institutions. If the Supreme Court does not want to exert its role as a neutral arbiter, it is absolutely crucial that the army takes this role.

Also the enemies of the United States in Beijing and even in Moscow should be nervous if the US army becomes politicized and ends as a tool for alternating erratic American leaders. As every historically interested person knows there is only a short way from internal troubles to an attack on outer enemies.

Fault lines

When a geographical area is located between or on the two sides of the border between two geological forces operating in different directions a fault line can open. But very often the landscape gets divided by numerous fault lines depending on position and material.

These considerations may be transferred to the cultural and political spheres. Here present Eastern Europe can be seen as an area between two different forces; the Western civilization and the emerging East European one. Also in this case there are more than just a single fault line. This means that the area is multifaceted with differences along different dimensions, differences with fault lines at different locations. Here some of these: The border between more and less authoritarian political systems runs along one zigzag line between the countries, the border between different cultural preferences along another, the border between different attitudes towards LGBT follows a third zigzag route both between and through countries. A further fault line with its own path runs between more and less oligarchic or should we call it feudal societies. A religious fault line between different parts of the Orthodox Church runs within several countries including Greece.

Importantly, some of these fault lines can be divided into parallel sublines dividing different degrees of a difference.

A politico-military fault line stretches along the Baltic States and Poland’s Eastern border to continue through Eastern Ukraine and north of Crimea and somewhere in Moldova. Clearly the Ukrainian part of this fault line is presently getting wider.

A further local extension of this fault line runs around Serbia in Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia. Also this part of the line seems to open further, right now especially in Bosnia.

LGBT - The Great Whore of Babylon

  

Modernities are amongst other things characterized by what people from other periods would term moral depravation. Seen in a long term perspective this is the result of the revolt against and breaking down of the high levels of control from forms and norms, levels of control which it had taken centuries to build up. We see this revolt in many fields; the arts free themselves from forms and naturalism, peoples want freedom from oppression, wars liberate themselves from restraint, sexuality becomes unbounded. But what started as a welcome liberation from external and internal suppression and control ends by being part of what breaks civilizations down. At the end of a moderlity we see what looks like barbarism. In politics wish for power becomes dominant and diplomacy is forgotten. Hatred or even violence prevails between people, between politicians and between countries.

 

Here though I will focus on sexuality. In modernities sexuality is liberated from norms and rules and marriage. Despite constant conservative resistance this process proceeds until we see conditions which were unthinkable at the start of modernities. Typically this continues for decades after the end of a moderlity. Just look at Messalina. At the same time we see a counter-movement to end perceived sexual promiscuity and perversions. Augustus who ended the Greco-Roman moderlity  tried this and for example sent the “immoral” poet Ovid to the Black Sea.

 

Today in the Western civilization we are perhaps seven decades from our Augustus, and we see the two sides both radicalizing, this coupled with the increasing political polarization. People with sexual LGBT-orientations are becoming a central battleground. In many leading and official circles such people are almost privileged and dominating. In other parts of society LGBT is viewed with great hostility as incomprehensible and unnatural.

 

This conservative hostility is a part of the beginning attempts at moral restoration. We see these conservative attempts all over the world. The radicalization and the dominance on the side of the LGBT-supporters make the opposite side more and more hostile. But the attempts at moral restoration come in many milder forms around the world, both in religious countries (United States, Middle East) and in secular countries (China), and it needs not be especially concerned with only LGBT.

 

 

 

A much more fundamental resistance to LGBT comes from East Europe with its presumed new civilization. Emerging civilizations begin with strong religious and/or moral feelings. This was the situation for the Oriental civilization two thousand years ago.  This civilization encompassed the whole Middle East, including Zoroastrians, Jews and Christians and later the Moslems. The Jews had experienced firstly the (second) Mesopotamian modernity during their stay in the “immoral” Big city of Babylon, hence  the expression Great Whore of Babylon. Later the Jews and the Christians experienced the Greco-Roman modernity in depraved Rome. No wonder that Rome was called Great Whore of Babylon. The present hate from Islamic terrorists against New York as illustrated by Bin Laden is a late expression of the same hatred, now directed against the Western civilization’s Babylon.

 

Today for many East Europeans parts of the Western civilization are seen as incomprehensible and immoral. LGBT has become the main focus point of these hostile feelings from Warsaw and Budapest to Vladivostok. In this part of the world LGBT is the Great Whore of Babylon. This explains the intensity of feelings against these sexual minorities. Such feelings are clear even in East European countries which otherwise still adhere to western liberal political forms and are thus deeply rooted and almost impossible to change. 

Taiwan, Kosovo and Ukraine

 The following should not be read as a support for any country or power!

 

Taiwan, Kosovo and Ukraine are three prominent examples of countries loosing provinces regarded as of crucial importance. Now, there is no law stating that such areas will or should be regained. Also the theory of the parallel but time-displaced  development of different civilizations does not predict this. But there is sufficient concrete precedence to predict that the loss of provinces having strong emotional importance often lead to strong bitterness and resurgent conflicts and wars. Just look at Alsace-Lorraine between Germany and France.

 

As described in earlier posts the Western civilization is in most of its lifetime strongly historically minded just like the Chinese civilizations and Old Egypt. But in the course of our present modernity we loose this sense more and more. This means that political leaders don’t learn from the past, and it means that they tend to underestimate the importance of history for other countries. The importance of Taiwan, Kosovo and Ukraine are examples of this. For the Chinese leadership Taiwan still symbolizes the century of humiliation by imperialist powers occupying and dominating territories. The emotional importance of this should not be overlooked. In long term Chinese history division has always been lamented. Even if division lasted centuries, it was always overcome inn the end. Even though much has changed with the westernization of the country, the reunification wishes remain a fact.

 

Kosovo and Ukraine are different cases. Both can be seen as the birth place of the mother countries, even though these, Serbia and Russia have since moved there centers. Their status as origins in itself gives the lost territories an enormous significance. Again, I must reiterate that this under no circumstances is meant as a defense of the ethnic cleansing by the Serbians in Kosovo.

 

What further aggravates the feelings in Serbia and Russia is that the primordial provinces Kosovo and Ukraine are seen as stolen by an alien civilization. Both Serbia and Russia are parts of what increasingly looks like an emerging East European civilization. Of course a membership of Ukraine in NATO or a direct military aid to Kiev would be an absurd provocation under such circumstances.

 

It is interesting to follow how on the level of foreign  politics and militarily the western powers (which in this case also mean the western civilization) seemingly unaware of what they are doing are moving eastwards into the areas of the East European civilization.

 

At the same time culturally and on the level of internal politics the East European civilization is moving westwards into areas hitherto firmly attached to western ideals. Poland and Hungary are only the most prominent examples of this. Ukraine is even more East European. Obviously a cultural embedding in the same civilization does not mean warm political relations  between countries in East Europe and Russia. As Said earlier the new civilization can even strengthen anti-Russian feelings despite increasing cultural and even political similarity.

Bravo!

 Brillant! 

Sign o' the Times

  The signs of the political decline characterizing Late Modernity which we are now entering are multiplying. They take many forms as we talk about a broad spectrum of changes affecting both the populations, the media and the political world. Denial of scientific facts, demagogical mob rule, politicians over-reacting or being childish and provocative when dealing with internal and int’l opponents, cult of personality, prolongations of period of rule, politics as such being replaced by stubbornly taking the opposite view of the opponents or just following the personal moods or tantrums of the leader.

In itself this decline is neither good nor bad, it is just a Sign o’ the Times. But for the present condition of the World and humanity it definitely has negative consequences. Also, despite it being a sign, there still is a degree of freedom of choice. The decline can be made weaker or stronger. 

In dealing with phenomena like Covid-19, climate change and famine, the intelligent policies and attitudes which characterize the phase of Mature Modernity, the period we are leaving, are definitely better suited.  

The different signs of the decline have different effects. For example the increasing power of a leader can have beneficial consequences if the leader is qualified. It is negative if he or she is or with age becomes erratic or despotically focused on own power rather than servicing the nation. Further, it is bad if the precedence created for strong and admired leaders is transferred to an unsuited successor.

Looking at the political parties in the leading countries of the Globe, the GOP clearly tops the immaturity rank. Examples are not necessary, but clearly for many leading persons in this party power and money and phanatical views are more important than the destiny of humanity and their own country. They gladly suppress democracy and risk provoking violent conflicts in the United States.

The major German political parties top the list on the maturity rank. Even though we do see that the leaders mean more for the choice of the voters than before, German politics is a light tower for the whole world radiating moral and maturity.

In troubled times we must focus on the relatively few mature developments. Besides Germany the increasing coordination against climate change is a such good sign. 

And looking at concrete measures, it is applaudable that the recent US intelligence report into the origin of the Corona virus concluded that the virus was not designed as a weapon. This was a scientifically sound conclusion, but as plenty of examples show, it could easily have been overruled by a desire to slander the enemy.