As said, the destiny of history only predetermines the broad course of the
future. There is a big variability where coincidences and political acts determine
the exact path. Late modernities are chaotic. National and international politics
are centralized and personalized under presidents, PMs, party leaders and
dictators.
Even though this may be the new order of the day, politics and
politicians can still vary considerably in quality along many dimensions. To take
the most important when it concerns global superiority, late modernity is also characterized
by a relative lack of longer term strategic
thought and policies. Instead short term tactics dominate. Under such
circumstances world hegemony belongs to those who are both strong and have retained
an ability to strategic thought. This is certainly not the hallmark of the present
US administration.
Of course a democracy degenerating into a mob outside the guidance of responsible
politicians and parties, a mob divided in raging fractions appealed to by demagogues,
has difficulties acting strategically. But even under these circumstances presidents
can be better in strategic thought.
PS
Killing in peace time a leading politician and/or general from another
country in a third country sets precedences showing the level of int’l politics
for the next decades.
