The US Army

 One year has now passed since the infamous attack on the US Congress. Numerous analyses, comments and warnings have since then been put forward by talented experts. I will only add a few remarks concerning the US army.

I have always been dismissive of drawing the parallels between Rome and the United States too far. Not least because it seemed highly unlikely that we should see American politicians fighting each other with private armies. But the developments over the latest couple of years, especially the attempted coup d’état on 6th January 2021 make it possible that something looking a bit like the Roman pattern could arise. The likelihood of this depends strongly on the decisions of the top ranks of the American army.

The radical anti-abortion laws in several American States and the role of the US Supreme court are parts of the conservative backlash I talked about in a recent post. The partiality of the Supreme Court is an example of institutions becoming politicised. I have earlier predicted that like in the Roman Republic more and more institutions will be taken over by one or the other side in the American political scene, and that they will Compete over and fight for the control of these institutions. This becomes even more severe as the hated but very important deep state is eroded, and there is nothing left which can ensure a degree of continuity. No country, even less a big one can be run without continuity. If neither the politicians, nor a deep state have continuity, society and its groups of people still do have continuous beliefs, traditions and attitudes which cannot be changed by a sudden decision or action from above. It is the error of many revolutions and radical decisions that they forget this. Attempted radical changes introduced by shifting politicians having extreme and opposing views will thus antagonize parts of the population. Examples are prohibition of abortion or the full introduction of a Scandinavian type welfare state. Such measures can lead to violent conflicts. Things like these happen when continuity from above is lost in a strongly polarised nation. A politicization of institutions is obviously a strong contributor to a such discontinuity.

No doubt one of the most important institutions in the United States is the American army. The sequence of events leading up to the attempted coup d’état and the responsible reactions from the army leaders can make one fear that Trumpists or the like in the near future when back in the role of president will attempt to take over the army by replacing its leaders with loyal people. Resistance to such political assaults from the armed forces could limit the damage caused by such politicians. But it could also lead to different ranches of the army swearing allegiance to different political parties or rather to different political leaders.

With its importance the US army is perhaps the last hope for the unity of the country. Therefore its use for partisan politics would be disastrous. Armed forces could be used to seize or maintain power, and different parts of the army could be used against each other. In this way the conditions in the United States would more than I had expected approach the Roman Republic in its last century.

The three most important developments in the world in the last five decades are the breakdown of the Soviet Union, the rise of China AND the polarization of the United States. The latter development has over the latest few years taken extreme dimensions with the rise and entry into the GOP of an extreme mob with a world view which is in denial of parts of reality and science. A country split by such antagonisms needs strong uniting institutions. If the Supreme Court does not want to exert its role as a neutral arbiter, it is absolutely crucial that the army takes this role.

Also the enemies of the United States in Beijing and even in Moscow should be nervous if the US army becomes politicized and ends as a tool for alternating erratic American leaders. As every historically interested person knows there is only a short way from internal troubles to an attack on outer enemies.

Fault lines

When a geographical area is located between or on the two sides of the border between two geological forces operating in different directions a fault line can open. But very often the landscape gets divided by numerous fault lines depending on position and material.

These considerations may be transferred to the cultural and political spheres. Here present Eastern Europe can be seen as an area between two different forces; the Western civilization and the emerging East European one. Also in this case there are more than just a single fault line. This means that the area is multifaceted with differences along different dimensions, differences with fault lines at different locations. Here some of these: The border between more and less authoritarian political systems runs along one zigzag line between the countries, the border between different cultural preferences along another, the border between different attitudes towards LGBT follows a third zigzag route both between and through countries. A further fault line with its own path runs between more and less oligarchic or should we call it feudal societies. A religious fault line between different parts of the Orthodox Church runs within several countries including Greece.

Importantly, some of these fault lines can be divided into parallel sublines dividing different degrees of a difference.

A politico-military fault line stretches along the Baltic States and Poland’s Eastern border to continue through Eastern Ukraine and north of Crimea and somewhere in Moldova. Clearly the Ukrainian part of this fault line is presently getting wider.

A further local extension of this fault line runs around Serbia in Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia. Also this part of the line seems to open further, right now especially in Bosnia.