Already before this president it was evident that our civilization, the West, would not avoid the destiny of the previous civilizations: decline, chaos, wars and the stage of one or two universal dictatorships. We have missed the last opportunities for stopping these developments.
But this is only the overall trend. The exact course and the gravity of these developments are not given as a law. It is influenced by political decisions and pure coincidences. And here the phenomenon of Donald Trump is a such coincidence, one which potentially can have a major impact on the path of history. This is of course in combination with the decision by leaders of the GOP not to contain the phenomenon early enough. Now it is too late. Obviously the Republican Party can not now abandon a man with a backing of 90 % of their electorate and an overall approval rate approaching 45 %.
As said it is largely a coincidence that a man of this type arrives at the present time, a man Who can act as a focal point for both the marginalized victims of the post-industrial and globalized age, the Evangelical fanatics and the extreme right. And that this man is not bounded by any conventions of decency or the burden of wisdom and knowledge. But it is a tragedy. It can create the precedence of a considerably lowered level of politics in the United States on both sides and this for decades. We risk that the exact path chosen within the broad trend set by history will end by being one of the worst possible. Even more chaotic and uncivilized than our late modernity needs to be. The Republicans have a heavy responsibility for this.
Leading Republicans may see Trump as a useful idiot who can be contained for one or two presidential periods. Looking at his blunders in foreign policy this has only partially succeeded. It is not obvious that a such containment will suffice to hinder larger problems. What is worse, it looks as if also upper sections of the GOP are beginning to identify with the actions of their president. The party is gradually being transformed to useful idiots for their president.
Eight years of this will drive the already grave polarization of the country to extreme levels. The type of behavior displayed presently will infect both parties. As said in other posts extreme tensions between the parties can lead to the breakdown of the Constitution and to violence and to fracturing between the institutions and the states. More and more, presidents will appeal directly to voters bypassing the political parties which will be unable to stop potentially disastrous decisions. It is in these ways that the presidency of President Trump risks being a turning point. A point narrowing the broad trend of history into an ugly path through the next decades.
Clearly much of this would have happened also without the appearance and acceptance of Donald Trump. But this historical coincidence does mean an aggravation. Thresholds on the way down are exceeded. And thresholds which have been exceeded downwards are difficult to retreat from. Most parts of a modernity are characterized by a breaking down of conventions and morals and self-restraint. Psychodynamically we are talking about a weakening of defense mechanisms against primitive drives, a de-sublimation. In the short and medium term defense mechanisms once weakened are difficult to rebuild. The dams have collapsed. This is even more the case in the present late modernity where defenses, not least those against aggressive and humiliating behavior, are generally broken down as clearly evidenced in the social media. Thus the exceeding of thresholds under the present presidency and its acceptance is not easily reversed. Indecency and extreme conflicts can become the accepted new order in both parties.
If we apply my usual comparison with the Roman Republic, a corresponding turning point may have been the use of deadly violence against the politician Tiberius Gracchus in 133 BC as reaction to his reforms. From this point the polarization and the tensions between the “Republican” Senate Party and the “Democratic” Peoples Party aggravated and culminated in the murderous proscriptions under Sulla and Marius. Also here thresholds of indecency and violence had been exceeded irreversibly. We must hope that the levels of violence between the two American political sides will not reach similar murderous levels.
Foreign competing powers should not feel too amused about these developments affecting their rival. Neither should the small countries feel reassured concerning their independence. The two sides in the United States seem to agree in an ever harder line against Russia and China. They certainly agree in an increasingly arrogant view of their allies as useful idiots which can be trampled upon and simply subjugated. What is worse, parties and presidents will compete in aggressive foreign policies.
But hostility against and alliances with competing powers can quickly be changed by future strong incontainable presidents overruling their party…
