Face it. The four Ukrainian regions incorporated into
Russia after pseudo -referendums will remain Russian territory.
The alternatives are grim. If you seriously want to enable
Ukraine to take the areas back, it will be necessary with Western military aid
which is over the Russian threshold for unpleasant retribution. Then we are no
longer talking about limiting energy supplies or bombing ones own pipelines,
but about means which can do considerable harm to Ukrainian or western resources
or civilians. It could potentially be a Zivilisationsbruch of enormous
dimensions.
Aiding Ukraine on this level would increase strain on a
leadership already under pressure from several external and internal forces.
And do not hope for a regime change. A such would with all likelihood worsen
things further. Remember also that even though the level of Western aid may now
be under the threshold, the same level can be perceived as being over this
limit in case of major Russian reverses. You never know when the threshold is reached.
You are balancing on a knife edge. Or formulated another way:
the Western countries are playing Russian roulette.
Of course the above comments contain nothing which is new
to experts. Remark also that this blog post is not meant as a moral judgement
about any side in the conflict. It is a warning against a dangerous escalation
which could become an existential threat for millions. Do we want to commit
suicide for four Ukrainian regions? Thus, even though it is bad from the
viewpoint of moral and international law, we must face the facts.
Politicians in leading positions must distinguish between rhetoric
and realpolitik, or should we say realkrieg. It is nothing new, but it is more
and more often the case in present late modernity that not only the public and
the media, but also politicians are unable to make this distinction. If we say
it then we will also do it. And if we don’t do it then the newspapers and the
opposition will attack us violently. Clearly this is dangerous. Forcing politicians
to keep their word may sound democratic, but in declined politics infected by demagogy
it can lead to uncalculated risks.
You may accuse me of supporting Russian attempts to create
fear by keeping us wondering about what Moscow may do or not do. But how sure
are you that Russian threats are only bluff? And will they continue to be bluff
no matter the movements of the military front? And what if the opposite player
is suddenly replaced by another who with certainty does not bluff?
Continue to condemn, but in realpolitik you must ignore your
own public statements and find a modus vivendi with the facts.
