The first couple of decades of the 21. century has been
marked by a surprising series of misguided actions with major strategic and in
some cases humanitarian consequences. I will discuss some of these.
The US invasion of Iraq
The main strategic consequences of this invasion were
within the field of terrorism. Here the effects were the opposite of the
purpose. Instead of Al-Qaeda we got ISIS which was far worse.
The humanitarian consequences are often forgotten. Hundreds
of thousands of people, mostly civilians were killed.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine
I will not here list all the adverse strategic reverses
Russia will suffer because of this mistaken invasion.
Over the preceding moths numerous commentators have done
this. It can be summarised as increased sphere of influence of the West and a major
economic decline and dependency on China.
The humanitarian consequences within Ukraine are grave compared
to the norms of the civilized world, but they will be dwarfed by the recession
and the famine which, intended or not, can result in the third world.
The ongoing self-destruction of the GOP
The decline of the US Republicans which became very visible
under President Clinton is now accelerating at an unbelievable rate. This plus
the ensuing insurmountable polarisation of the United States will harm the whole
country. As often predicted the American nation is approaching civil war-like conditions
with violent shifts of power and hindrance of shifts of power. Policies will shift
between opposites so extreme that half the population can become rebels. The
anti-abortion legislations and the role of the Supreme Court in this matter is
an obvious example.
In this way the decline of the GOP will entail the
self-degradation of the United States. And this at a time when America is
preparing for the expected power struggle with it’s big competitor China.
For a big nation engaged in a competition for power with
other big nations, a struggle which can ultimately become existential, one of the
most important purposes of internal politics is to make sure that your own
nation is strong, is fit for the fight. This means not least that it is
coherent and stable. But for the Republicans their own power and extreme views are
far more important than their country.
A degraded America cannot fight two strong competitors. Therefore,
it is no wonder that the United States want to use the war in Ukraine to
degrade Russia. If you degrade yourself, it is a good idea to also degrade one
of the competing countries. Ukraine is being used for this.
But if Trumpism returns we might see another answer to the dilemma
of the Americans. The rising volatility of domestic and international politics plus
a type of leader freed from traditions and experts will find it easy to shift
alliances. A degraded America in alliance with Russia – none of them inhibited
by traditions - would be a better match for China. That this prospect is a real
possibility is one more reason why the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a
strategic mistake. Starting it under President Biden was bad timing.
A Russia weakened because of the invasion, the sanctions
and the indirect American participation in the war would be an inferior ally for
a US president (or a Chinese).
The ongoing digitalisation of the EU
The EU is a further possible power. It’s renewed dependence
on the Americans under President Biden seems very short-sighted taken the unpredictability
of the United States and prospects like the above into consideration. I hope
that behind closed doors our politicians think and talk about and prepare for radically
changed conditions. Everybody is talking about the new world situation after
the Russian invasion. But the significance of this will be minor compared to
what could come from Washington.
Europe is in a very weak position because of it’s disunited
condition, easy prey for big powers playing divide and rule. Treacherous right
wing populists work to aid them by splitting the EU. Another very important
factor of weakness is the lack of an own strong IT-industry and the resulting
dependency on America and China. In view of this it is unforgivably stupid that
we have digitalised both public and private sectors in a heavy degree and continue
to do so. As written earlier, this corresponds to building railroads and
highways from the enemy’s military bases to the centre of your own country
without any great firewall to block invasions.
And China?
Three of the World’s major players are thus weakening
themselves. What about the fourth, China? Till now China has made no major single
strategic error. But the accumulating weight of it’s bad reputation is taking
it’s toll. On the humanitarian level the suffering of the few dissidents or the
number of people suffering in Hong Kong or even in Xinjiang is apparently too
limited for European and Moslem politicians compared to economy. But a public
opinion in the West driven by both real idealistic concern and new cold war rhetoric
is pressuring these politicians *.
I am not claiming or assuming that an immediate Chinese
invasion of Taiwan is on the table. But if it happened it would have major adverse
strategic, not least economic consequences. It would be the next major
strategic mistake in our century. Such an invasion would not be swallowed as
easily. It could cause an early disastrous bifurcation of the World as public
opinion and not least sanctions enforced worldwide by the Americans could force
Europe politically and economically into the sphere of the United States. Latin
America would with great likelihood be pressed in the same direction. The
position of India vis-à-vis China is clear. Countries bordering the South China
Sea would also turn to Washington. The sphere or rather area of control of the
United States would be large in population, area and wealth no matter the
condition of this power and no matter on which side Russia would be. Obviously,
the recession caused by an economic shock-rupture would cause a major worldwide
recession.
China has been very qualified in strategic planning and
acting, both internally and externally. But the result of this can quickly be
undone. Just as a major int’l player has an obligation to stay internally fit
for the external competition, he or she also has an obligation to act externally
in ways that do not harm internally.
Conclusion
The discussion above clearly illustrates the lack of
strategic thinking which is typical for late modernities. This is what makes these
periods so unpredictable. Nations which maintain a certain ability to act
strategically will have a clear advantage in the global competition over the next
decades. Long term planning, facts and realpolitik matters. Mistakes and politics or acts based on outbursts
of feelings, biased perceptions, symbols and stubbornness must be avoided.
NOTE
*La séparatisme islamiste is to a large extent the result
of a trait of the Oriental civilization: the segregated living of its
constituent nations. This cannot be overcome by placing Moslems in impoverished
suburbs or locked up in harsh camps. Such treatments only confirm the
segregation. Instead, the young generation should be drowned in wealth, smartphones
and TikTok. This would quickly solve the problem.
