One Step Further

 

Russian invasion of Ukraine. Another of these deliberate irresponsible acts which falls outside well-established patterns.

 

It is a further step into the unknown waters of post-mature or late modernity. An act defying the norms of behaviour and humanity which defined mature modernity since the last world war.

 

The invasion is one of the worst events till now in a series of developments and decisions bringing us into the last chaotic part of our modernity. Other hallmarks were the first presidency of Donald Trump with several decisions breaking the norms. Others are the attempted coup d’état in the United States one year ago and not least the present subjugation of the GOP by Trump. One of the next will be the return of Trump to power, this time with a party too intimidated to control him.

 

All of these developments create precedence. Restraints once broken down are difficult to re-establish in a lasting way. Throughout a modernity the aggressions rooted in never solved internal, social and int’l tensions again and again break out in violence. With time this typically gets more serious and frequent because of the continuous weakening of old norms seen not only in Woodstock, but also on the political scene and on the battlefield.

 

At least two civilisations have seriously tried to control this aspect of their modernity on a large scale, replacing it with written and unwritten humanistic norms and rules. I am talking about the second Chinese modernity in the Song Dynasty which had open political discussions and implemented social reforms. And avoided conflicts with neighbouring countries by a combination of a strong and technological military deterrent (perhaps an early version of a terror balance) and not least through regular payments of large sums of money to the main competing powers. The politicians were too wise to see this as humiliating and instead saw it as their goal to have the people live in peace.

 

The other example of a civilization trying to implement humane ideals in its modernity is our own, the Western civilization (including most of the present world). In some ways we have been far less successful than the Song politicians; we have had many periods with utterly barbaric persecutions, genocides and wars. But through the 20^th century we have made world history’s most impressive attempt to create welfare, democracy (not necessarily only in the Western sense)  and peaceful coexistence between nations, at least in the rich northern hemisphere. Keeping peace has of course been aided by the terror balance. The policies have been rather successful since 1945.

 

But now through the series of developments described above, these attempts at creating freedom, prosperity and peace on earth seem to be ending. The will to or rather craving for power replaces political ideals. Donald Trump, the republicans and several countries are killing democracy. And now the Russian leadership is undermining the ideal of peaceful coexistence between civilized nations.

 

Clearly, conflicts in and between countries are not atypical for modernities. But as said before there is always a degree of freedom to choose how severe this will be. That somebody deliberately chooses war on this scale in Europe is a major and unnecessary paradigm shift.

 

Here I have not used the hypothesis of Russia belonging to another civilization. This is because the country since Czar Peter The Great has become so heavily westernised that it for major parts of its politics is best understood as a player in our civilization. IF we use the idea of an East European civilization, see my recent posts, there can be little doubt that the Russian action is counterproductive. It will only push East European countries politically and culturally westwards.

 

Taking the broader perspective into consideration Europe should be prepared for a very different future. This not solely because of the precedence now set by Russia. There awaits us a future where Trumpism and the US Republicans further erode rule-based behaviour and transform the United States into a post-constitutional authoritarian country. It’s support can then no longer be taken for granted. Instead like Russia the United States will treat us with contempt and disrespect.

 

The Western civilization has been very ambitious in it’s attempts to create paradise on Earth. But compared to the song dynasty our attempts did not last as long. More and more, power will replace paradise as the goal.