Iran again

This post is partly a reuse and abbreviation of a far too long post from 2018 on a situation around Iran, which resembled the present.

In 53 BC the Roman politician and billionaire Crassus wanted to gain support and power by defeating the Parthian Persian Empire in Iran. He and his legionnaires marched in, but were utterly massacred. Crassus had not informed himself about the conditions. I do certainly not claiin that there is a close similarity between the deeds of Crassus then and Trump now, just point to the importance of knowledge before major military actions.

One may gain a deeper understanding of developments in the Middle East by seeing the present period as a revival of the Oriental modernity from roughly 750 to 1070. The modernity of a civilization is a period of about 300 years occurring after the classical period. In the Greco-Roman civilization it was around 330 to 30 BC, in the first Chinese, it was around 530-220, in the Oriental as said 750-1070 and in our case, the Western civilization 1789 to roughly 2100. These periods are characterized by rationalism, atheism, revolutions,violence, political ideas, pluralism and wars.

The Oriental modernity was filled with politico-religious thought and parties, conflicts and insurrections and revolutions of an almost unbelievable extent. In fact the modernity of this civilization was one of the most revolutionary we have seen, at least before ours.

Since 1800 the influence and expansion of our civilisation has destabilised the for centuries dormant peoples of the Orient. It has awoken resistance and energised and thus revitalised the long dead modernity. During the last 200 years we have seen numerous major and minor upheavals beginning with the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. Insurrections, revolutions, reactionary movements etc. strongly resembling what we saw 1000 years ago. A reawakening of a modernity

Syria and Iraq and Iran

Under the Baathist parties or rather dictators, Saddam Hussein and the Assads, Iraq and Syria may be seen as revived Muʿtazilite or rationalist states. Politics and religion were intertwined, but the will of God concerning correct government could be deduced through reason and political ideas. Until the US invasion and the Arab Spring.In the Oriental modernity centuries ago the areas from Lebanon to Afghanistan were some of the most violent in the world, torn by civil wars, insurrections and revolutions. Myriads of rulers and politico-ethnico-religious groups and parties fought each other. With the revitalisation of the old modernity, these areas have tended to revert to a comparable condition. Old groups become repoliticised, and new conflicting groups emerge in a similar pattern. The Baathist rules in Iraq and Syria prevented open conflicts. So did the Shah and the Ayatollahs in Iran. But with the removal and weakening of the dictatorships, chaos returned in both Iraq and Syria in the form of fights between the many groups.Trump has introduced extreme sanctions and now war against Iran and demands that the country surrenders completely. Knowing that a such surrender is ruled out, the plan can only be to worsen the crisis of Iran and thereby provoke a revolution.

But even if possible, why should a regime-change in Iran be more smooth than the ones in Iraq, Syria and Libya? The removal of a strong government in Teheran could like in Syria and Iraq set free conflicts between politico-ethnico-religious groups. And there can be many. The country is today again like in the very chaotic modernity 900 years ago filled with groups of different ethnicity, religion and political adherence and viewpoints. To these comes the dimension of degree of Westernisation. Iran has one of the most heavily Westernised upper/middle classes in the Middle East and at the same time very strong anti-western feelings in other parts of the population. This adds to the many other antagonisms. Also, Iran is an extremely ethnically diverse country, more than most others in the Middle East. Thus, there are many antagonisms. Open conflicts may break out if the central power weakens or disappears.The conflicts could be on a scale which in the worst case would make those in Syria look like a picnic and create huge streams of refugees (Iran has a common border with Turkey). This would certainly not bring stability to the Middle East and less terror to the World.