Be careful now!

  

All of you are gambling with World War III

 

Russia is the central part of the emerging East European Civilisation, which reaches from Kamchatka to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia and includes these East European areas. Obviously, Ukraine belongs to the same civilisation. Like almost all civilizations this East European one consists of several countries. And like in our Second European Civilisation, the nations in East Europe can be deadly enemies, but they nevertheless are part of the same overall culture.

 

In present East Europe the situation is complicated by the overwhelming influence from us in the neighboring Second European Civilisation, an influence which becomes stronger and stronger toward geographical west. This influence brings East Europe close to West Europe, but in the present decades it also causes resentment and resistance, not only in Russia, but also in the eastern countries of the EU. Russia is the part of East Europe which is least marked by the cultural wind from west.

 

This civilisation is newborn. Like the nations of the newborn Second European Civilisation 1000 years ago, it sees itself as a holy land with a Messianic mission. Europe wanted to free its own and neighboring areas from the Arabic Oriental Civilisation, which then had an influence over West Europe similar to the influence we today have over East Europe.

 

Because of historical traditions, geographic location and greater freedom from alien pollution Russia has always seen itself as sacred. This may sound absurd for us intellectual and skeptical minds of our rational modernity who think that we have reached a universally valid peak of civilisation. But these feelings constitute an immense part of the Russian soul, not only for a single ruler, hated in the West.

 

Ukraine was the original core of Russia, even though the centre of gravity gradually moved to Moscow. As such, the area of Ukraine is still sacred for Russians and seen as an integral part of Russian culture. Until the Russian invasion, many Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens saw themselves as as both Ukrainians and Russians. Only the attack from the East started the creation of a coherent Ukrainian nation.

 

The point is that besides being located dangerously close to their capital, for Russians the area of Ukraine is an immensely important part of their nation.

 

More generally spoken, the east-ward expansion of NATO and the EU constituted a gross provocation and humiliation of Russia. Also the liberator of East Europe, Gorbatjov warned against it and rightly felt betrayed by the West.

 

It is not realpolitik to see Russia and Ukraine as just two ordinary countries and the conflict as just another case where rationality and rules for coexistence can be applied directly. This is hopelessly naive. For Russia, Ukraine is politically and culturally of existential importance. This must be taken into account. Only then can foreign politics become real. An attempt from the West to retake the whole of the holy grounds could result in something far more serious than drones or hackers. The effect could become an existential threat to Europe and the World. Closed airports are just a first small warning.

 

Something else: Already now the EU includes several countries which may be enemies of Russia but are part of the same East European Civilisation. If also Ukraine enters the union, it would result in a giant East European block, a fifth column which would undermine the political and cultural coherence of the Union even further. This would add to the centrifugal effect of populists in West Europe. It may be better for the EU to consolidate its old center than to stretch itself further and further.  

 

Obviously, an attack on a sovereign country is indeed unacceptable and must be condemned. But it does not come out of a vacuum. In reality, Ukraine gains from the invasion. Before this, the country was split between the NATO- and EU-oriented western parts and the Russian-oriented east. Majority shifted between them. Some people in the eastern half were de facto Russians. In the western half a loud minority were and still are extreme nationalists with racist tendencies, something even the EU and America saw, at least before the invasion. Since the start of the war, most of Ukraine has become a more coherent nation.

 

If Kiev cedes the occupied areas, they can also gain peace in addition to this coherence. So can Europe. Some may say that Russia in that case will go further. But a re-occupation of the lost Ukrainian territories can certainly not secure peace. No, it would be stepping many miles over the red line. It would destabilize and threaten the EU and the World as a whole.