The Langoliers are coming!

 

After the election of President Biden there was a deep breath of relief. Everything seems to be back on track. To a large extent we proceed with politics as in the good old days. But beneath the surface there are threatening developments underway. Developments which will make Trumpism resurge. 

 

In a small TV series the Langoliers were monsters having the task of devouring the world we left minutes ago.  Political monsters are likewise   presently devouring America’s old political world.

 

(Do not see the series because of political or historical interest!).

 

As written numerous times, the developments in civilizations are only in broad terms determined by the parallels which can be extracted by comparing the different civilizations.

 

The more specific developments are linked to the specific characteristics of the specific civilization or decided by coincidences, often in the form of decisions. Of these coincidences some can have impacts which are so big that they can be considered as world historical. They bring about a large unexpected deviation from the course prepared by the previous developments. In some cases such world historical coincidences may even cause a deviation from the path laid out by the overall commonalities between the civilizations. 

 

In this connection it is important to underline that I am talking about the developments within civilizations in their dynamic and constantly evolving centuries which last about 1500 years, in the case of our European-Global civilization from roughly 1000 to 2500. In this period developments are strongly driven by internal dynamics. After this period a civilization goes into late periods, where they are not deeply and strongly changed by internal dynamics. Thus what I am talking about here are events that affect a civilization in its dynamic period and which alter the path otherwise determined largely by internal drives. These path-changing events and developments are what I term world historical.

 

The types of events range from unexpected internal developments over natural disasters to invasions. The resulting changes range from moderate to devastating. The Meso-American civilization was drastically affected by as much as two world historical events: the natural disaster in the 9th century and the Spanish invasion with the resulting infections in the 16th century.

 

In our case the human-caused climate changes can become an example of a devastating world historical event. In this post I will talk about another disastrous, though less devastating (as we may hope) example from our civilization.

 

I am talking about the present developments within the GOP. The (first?) presidency of Donald Trump seemed destined to be a phenomenon which was extreme, but only ephemeral. The president’s lack of knowledge and consistency should limit the depth of his impact. Therefore what is much more important than the person is how the Republican Party develops as reaction to him and his rule. They could have reacted by somehow leaving him behind and reverting to their previous policies and habits. These habits were already politically declined, but not more as could be expected at our present stage of late modernity. 

 

But the way the GOP is presently making itself dependent on the former president because of his unbelievable popularity among a  segment of the voters is a truly world historical development.  More and more political opportunism, wish for positions, money and power outweigh moral, knowledge, intelligence and wisdom. 

- The views of Republican politicians are no longer political in the strict sense of the word. Instead they blindly follow a leader with popular appeal, or their opinions are simply derived by assuming the opposite of the opinions of the Democratic Party.

- The belief in and propagation of conspiracy theories will destroy the confidence in legitimate democratic changes of power.

- Even more threatening are the openly anti-democratic attacks on votes already cast and not least the limitations of voting rights. Parts of America are approaching the conditions  of Belarus…

 

It is these developments which are world historical. They were not necessary, and they will alter the path of our late modernity. Developments like these were likely to occur also without the present change of the Republican Party, but not until much later in this century. Thus the world historical in the present degradation of the GOP is that it sets in decades before expected. This will send out rings of destabilization through America and the World.

 

Right now it is Donald Trump who is taking over the Republican Party. In his election campaign and his presidency he bypassed the party by talking directly with the party voters. As said, in itself this could have been merely ephemeral. The lasting world historical change is due to the fact that the GOP does not handle the situation by regaining its voters and putting the disastrous former president in a parenthesis. Instead the party is adapting to the misled voters and their mob ruler. This will set a lasting precedence. From now on the party will merely be a tool for demagogic leaders connected directly to the mobs.

 

This development will prematurely destabilize the United States. Power will be attained and retained by undemocratic and unconstitutional, partly violent means. International politics will be greatly affected. The leaders in the DisUnited States will compete in being tough against rival powers and against smaller countries perceived as annoying. Allies will be trampled down. The world could indeed become bifurcated. We see these developments already now. Even the present US administration is engaging in statements, declarations and acts which go dangerously close to or beyond the limits of the classical diplomacy which they want to restore. 

 

It may be pleasing for some world leaders to see the United States destroying its democracy. But the idea of democracy is harmed by malfunctioning democracies, not by openly “Belarusian” suppression of it in some US states. 

 

And as its population is young, growing and dynamic, America  despite its internal troubles  will have an advantage over countries with old and dwindling populations.

 

Needless to say, the world historical development initiated by a GOP without moral will aggravate the world  historical impact from climate change. If you think that scientific questions concerning Covid-19 and global warming can be determined by political decisions, our civilization is  approaching medieval conditions.