International aspects of political development
Here I will
elaborate on the topic in the last post, The Decline of Politics.
Democracy for any prize?
The
degree of democracy possible without counterproductive effects in the form of
instability depends on
1.
Political development on the way up.
2.
Political decline on the way down again.
It is
important that the degree of democracy should always follow the maximum level, which is possible without chaos, in
the light of the political level.
Most
third world countries are not yet sufficiently politically developped to
implement democracy in the full western sense. This would lead to instability
and will often be terminated by coups. To demand democracy from such countries
is irresponsible!
Also
China and Russia are not sufficiently politically developed to implement full
Western democracy. To demand they should is also irresponsible unless of course
it is a deliberate attempt to weaken them and so easier defeat them in the
international competition! But a break down of effective government in such
important countries would harm the whole World, not least economically!
We saw
what can happen if democracy is enforced too early in Russia after the fall of
Gorbatjov. The strengthening of the government under Putin was necessary. China
would also have plunged into a chaos even worse, if the students had won in
1989.
But of
course a country can also limit democracy more than necessary in relation to
the political level.
_________
From the
age of Enlightenment Western Europe and North America were ascending in
political level, Southern Europe a bit later. The Third World much later. This
culminated probably in the sixties and seventies of the last century. Since
then the downward trend has been underway as described in the last post.
This
means that Southern Europe and the Third World have not and will not reach the
most developped states before the downward turn. Italy reached a new low point
in the elections. “Two clowns” won more than 50 % of the votes.
The west
inspires the rest. When the west declines, so does the rest.
The international competition for supremacy
There is one more threat to democracy. This one is
valid for the big players on the international political scene. These countries are competing with
each other for
dominance and therefore their internal strength and thus political efficiency
is important, so they don’t lose in the
competition from the other
powers.
This threat was not very relevant for the Romans after
Zama. No
opponents of any strength existed west of the Parthians. And
this probably also is a part of the explanation why the internal chaos
continued until just before Augustus put an end to the Warring States or
Modernity phase or as Toynbee calls it, the Time of Troubles. As a single Roman general could subdue and eradicate whole states,
the politicians and military leaders in Rome itself could afford the chaotic in
fights much longer without fearing that outside forces would take advantage of
the situation.
This was very different in the same
period in the first
Chinese civilization, where all the
major powers were
very strong and each had armies of one million troops. Here only the
most effective states could stand the competition and the wars. Qin won the fight by being extremely
well and harsh governed.
For our civilization we are somewhat closer to the old
Chinese condition. Our Rome, the United States is not alone, but has competitors like China
and Russia and soon maybe
more. This means that it is imperative for the Americans to be well governed and effective.
This pressure for efficiency is another major threat
to democracy. Here like with the other threats, it would be ideal to save
democracy by strengthening the executive just as much as needed and no more. We
don’t want to have the Qin solution with its brutal oppression! But if the Americans hope to
continue as the "leading nation on Earth" they will have to
strengthen government.
A World
power cannot continue as a such, if the opposition sabotages the necessary
decisions. Today the right wing Republicans, tomorrow under another president
perhabs left wing Democrats.
Even
more harmful could be the extreme anti-Washington sentiments. People whose
dream is a decentralized state not ruled from Washington and the
"political establishment" and instead want small communities ruled by
"Christian" pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax, anti- Obama care people and
defended by small bands of individual desperados armed by the Rifle Association. Even a small approaching of this condition would imply a serious weakening
of the United States.
I guess not
even the Tea Party movement or other right wing Republicans want the Chinese and Russians to win the
competition for world hegemony?!
_________
NOTES
The
smaller countries in the old continent do not anymore take part in the
competition for world hegemony. Therefore they do not feel the external
pressure making inner strengthening necessary. They could end like the greek
city states. At a time representatives of four competing parties from the formerly so well ruled Sparta were in
Rome each seeking support for their cause in the chaotic political battles.
The EU
is an attempt on the level of all European states at countering the trend.
Create a common executive above the single governments. But this will fail as
the decline within the states continues.
For the
World it may make only a little difference who wins, the Americans or the
Chinese. They may be approaching the same level of limited democracy, even
though from opposite sides.
