Saturday, August 18, 2018

In continuation

In continuation: To see it from the point of view of the superpower USA.

If Donald Trump wins a second presidency dominated by hardline Republicans, things could begin to look bleak for the United States. Polarization and tensions will continue to rise to dangerous levels. The Democratic Party may not have the patience to continue to act as relatively maturely as it does.  An eight year long period of hardline and chaotic administration would be harmful for both internal and external politics of the United States.

To achieve power in int'l affairs,  both political tactics and longterm strategy is needed. It is not enough only to increase military expenditure ever more. This would suffice in a world like the Mediterranean 2100 years ago where no major opponents existed, and no weapons were too horrific to be used. But obviously neither is the case today. One just needs to compare US and Russian influence in the world. The Russians through strategy and tactics have achieved a remarkable influence despite a military budget which is microscopic compared to the American.

One important purpose for politics in a big power which is in competition with other powers, is to make ones own country fit for competition and potential conflicts. This both with respect to political efficiency and with respect to ones influence in the world.  Societal tensions, political polarization and obstructionism combined with a foreign policy which is discontinuous in time and space, will not bring about this fitness.

A limitation to one presidency under Donald Trump aided by his followers could reduce these problems for the immediate future. But the tensions in American society and politics are very strong and deeply rooted and will continue to disturb efficient government also under other presidents. A fundamental change may demand an unlikely reorganization of the American party-landscape.

Of course Russia has been trying to influence US elections. Not to do so would be stupid for a power with limited economic and military resources. But to claim that Russia is causing the US political decline and tensions is obviously absurd. Also the United States have interfered in the politics of several countries for decades. The present US ambassador in Germany openly declared it to be one of his tasks to support rightwing populists in Europe. Thus mutual political interference is normal. But if it can be proven that a US president has colluded with foreign interference in America, then this collusion is of course another matter.

One last point: Denying former intelligence chiefs access to important information will not help building a base of experience important for strategic thought...

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