Mr. Trump seems already now to be ruling by tweets commanding both the industry and politicians who obey for fear of shitstorms. We can welcome the intention of the president-elect to improve ties with Russia and thus limit a threatening cold war. But this does certainly not mean that all foreign policy plans from the coming president are wise.
The announced new policies toward Israel will be a disaster. I have a few years ago in the post "The Middle East, Rome and the United States" compared the present day Middle East situation with that 2000 years ago. At that time the Romans were hated in the Eastern Mediterranean, not only because of their oppression, plundering and abuses, but also very much because of the cultural difference and opposition between the old "Western" Greco-Roman civilization and the new upcoming Oriental one. A further factor was the difference in the phase these civilizations were in. Like the present day western world Rome was in its modernity, a phase characterized by cool intellect, lack of religion and rationalism mixed with ridiculing of those not in this stage. The Oriental civilization was in its beginning early medieval period, a phase filled with very strong religious beliefs. This is where we in the Westwere around AD 1000. Both the differences between the cultures as such and the difference between the phases and the real oppression contributed to the strong resistance of the emerging Oriental world against the Romans. Enormously important was also the fact of the pseudomorphosis. This was the phenomenon that the new civilization had to rise in an area totally culturally dominated by the Greek and Roman western culture. It had to express itself under the mighty pressure or in the forms of the Greco-Roman world. This led to a colossal anger and rage from the dominated civilization and its culture.
Today the situation is quite comparable. The old antique western civilization has vanished and has been replaced by a new, the Western European-American one. This has great cultural similarities with the old Greco-Roman predecessor, and importantly, it is also in its modernity with the same rational and superficial thinking.
Today the Oriental world is still there, but in the passed 2000 years it has passed trough its own rational modernity one thousand years ago and it has since then moved to the typical late stage of old civilizations. A phase where rationality has vaned and religion returned. Despite the difference between an Oriental world then in an early, now in a late phase, the difference between western modernity and Oriental religion is the same. And also the difference between the clashing cultures is the same. Of course now like then many people in the Middle East become westernized, but this just strengthens the resentment of the others.
And also in the total cultural and political dominance history repeats itself. The West lies heavily on all parts of the world. From this complex situation comes the mighty hatred in parts of the Middle East against the West, especially the new Romans from the United States. The Middle East then and now constitutes perhaps the most striking parallel in world history.
In addition to all this come the last barbarians, comparable to the Germanic and North African tribes at the borders of the Roman empire. Groups like ISIS represent forces beyond all civilizations, also the Oriental, but they claim a perverted misunderstood form of Islam as their foundation. Therefore the border between them and the resentment of parts of the Oriental civilization tend to be fuzzy.
Israeli policies endorsed and fueled by the coming US administration, policies directed against the Palestinians, reducing them to second rank people without rights and creating bantustans will bring more hatred, desperation and terrorism, no matter if ISIS is defeated, by the way good luck with that!
A new Intifada may start in the occupied areas. Terrorism against the Jewish state could explode. But not only the occupied areas and Gaza will be filled with desperation and hatred. Also groups outside, and here not only hardcore terrorists will feel growing anger. Governments, and here not only in countries which are enemies of the USA will show resentment and hostility against the Americans. There will be opposition and resentment in friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. We could see a generalized anti-American and anti-western sentiment rising in much of the Middle East. And of course support for barbaric groups like exactly ISIS will rise. Under Trump the Israeli government will feel encouraged to even more actions against the two-state solution and thus aggravate the situation even more.
Stopping the nuclear deal with Iran will certainly not help the situation where so many hate the United States. Wiser would it be to cooperate with Teheran and thus to support a balance of power in the Middle East - divide et impera.
The opposition from the UK government against the Obama administrations criticism of Israel shows that the UK plans to stay an American vassal state, no matter who the president is and no matter what he does.