Sunday, March 16, 2014

Prospects and time for compromise!

How can a new Cold War make such a big difference for the American prospects as said in the last post? Two reasons:

1) The mentioned possible Sino-Russian alliance, a true Eurasian union.

2) A new Cold War would imply or reintroduce a clear demarcation line between the blocks. Without this line, as was the case till now, the American influence has just ever increased unnoticed through IT dominance, the media in general and immense cultural radiation. Given a clear political borderline, this gradual infiltration will not go on unnoticed. This influx could therefore actively be limited in the part of the world dominated by the competing powers. Even though this limitation is difficult in an already globalized world, it may succeed to a certain extent, and at least there will be a more conscious awareness about the influx. Alternatives in IT and culture will be put up, in the cultural sphere perhaps inspired by Orthodox Christianity and Confucianism?

In conclusion the end fight will be much more confrontational and carried out in the open (but probably not in a directly military way) instead of being a gradual proces of infiltration.

BUT the scenario described in this comment as a possible result of the Crimea crisis, is an extreme one. In the globalized and interdependent world it is more likely that we will end somewhere between the present condition and the described extreme scenario.

Also no matter the possible gains in territory and global power for Russia, the price for the whole of the world including Russia in terms of economy and imternational cooperation is too high. Putin should refrain from officially annexing Crimea and indeed from going further. It would be completely irresponsible. It is time for compromises.

There is probably also a limit for Chinese support. After thousands of years with frequent insurrections, the very historically minded Chinese will not risk damaging the economic prospects through a new Cold War for fear of social unrest.

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